Kabul 2012

April saw the deadly attacks on Kabul from within the city. These attacks were significant as it showed not only the vulnerability of the city but also the ability of the reinvigorated Taliban to strike where they please.

While the attacks may not have caused an enormous amount of physical damage, the attacks were a spectacular PR victory for the Taliban. The PR success was then made all the greater by President Karzai declaring it a failure on the part of NATO intelligence, once more showing Karzai to be playing at political point scoring.

It is true that this was a failure on the part of NATO to prevent these attacks, however it must be remembered that Afghan forces should also be able to detect and stop such attacks occurring as it is not long until the NATO forces that Karzai likes to criticize so much withdraw from the country.

While people may like to make comparisons with the American involvement in Vietnam, the Taleban are unlikely to achieve a military victory over the coalition forces. Once the coalition forces have withdrawn from the country and there are only “advisors” left then it might be a different matter. This is where American involvement may become a little closer to the Vietnam comparison and the Taliban will no doubt be prepared to bleed American and Afghan forces until the final American forces depart from the country. If the Taliban are then able to take on and defeat Afghan government forces then it will add a further perceived “cut and run” laurel to the American reputation.

That is not to say that it is inevitable that the Taliban will emerge as the victors. There are many factors that could prevent that including some of the powerful tribal forces of various warlods switching sides once the foreign forces have left.

It will be interesting over the coming weeks to see if there are further “spectacular” attacks carried out and claimed by the Taliban. It will also be interesting to see the long term implications on the drawdown of forces and the timetable for the exit. 

Photo source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2012/apr/15/kabul-attacks-live-updates