One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

The coalition plans for withdrawal suffered another setback this weekend at the hands of a lone US Staff Sergeant. The news of the horrific killings have unsurprisingly generated plenty of coverage in the papers over the last two days. As many commentators have been quick to point out, this is yet another embarrassing moment for US commanders coming at a time when the outrage over the burning of copies of the Koran had started to dissipate. Many commentators (at least in the UK) have also been quick to point out that there has not been a wave of protests or attacks against coalition troops in response to the killings, so far. What then is likely to occur over the next few days and weeks.

It will be interesting to see if any protests do occur as a result of the horrific and cold blooded actions of the lone gunman. However with the initial 48 hours passing it might be a case that many Afghans have become resigned to living life in a hostile environment where outsiders are generally unwelcome and death and injury comes from either insurgent activity (IEDs or reprisal etc) or from coalition activity (“collateral” damage). There is also the tribal element at play, the deaths occurred in the South of the country which is Pashtun. Despite and almost because of the near endless conflict that Afghanistan has witnessed, there is little national identity. Instead Tribal identity can take precedence over national identity.  

The Taleban were quick to try and seize the narrative of the events and issue declarations condemning the coalition forces as “savages” out to spill the blood of innocent Afghans. The Taleban have vowed to avenge these killings through attack on coalition forces.

Interestingly, this will be business as usual for the Taleban; but by making the statement and seizing the narrative of the event they appear to be doing something for the good of the Afghan people.

The press will spin the story out as long as it sells and will seek to use the attack as justification that our forces should no longer be in Afghanistan. Importantly the coverage the attacks receive will throw into the spotlight the ongoing discussions around the withdrawal of UK and US forces from Afghanistan. As one commentator pointed out, this could be a moment where Afghan politicians try and hold foreign forces accountable for their actions. There are already calls for the perpetrator to face justice in Afghanistan (something that the US is unlikely to acquiesce to).

Ultimately I believe that not a lot (aside from the usual levels of violence) will occur as a direct result following this attack. There will undoubtedly be attacks which the Taleban will claim are in retaliation to this event; but in all likelihood would have occurred anyway just in retaliation to something else.

The biggest impact these attacks will have is on the families of the victims and on the withdrawal plans. The timings of the withdrawals may not change but there will certainly be further conditions placed on the coalition troops staying in Afghanistan.

Photo source: (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd) (Credit: AP) http://www.salon.com/2010/07/25/wikileaks_4/ 

Market Garden

Operation Market Garden has been the subject of many books, TV programmes and films; but what makes Market Garden so interesting.

A leading factor is that it is often viewed as a doomed operation from the start. An operation that was flawed in every aspect; and plays up to the image of the British forces conducting business as usual rather than the dash that was required.

There are plenty of sources out there covering Market Garden from well known films such as “A Bridge Too Far” and “Band of Brothers” to written accounts of the battle either covering a small part of the battle (such as the battle for Arnhem itself) or taking a wider look at the entirety of operation. There are also plenty of first hand accounts and the tales of the brave Red Devils holding on for much longer than was expected against far greater odds, makes for exciting reading and viewing.

This makes researching Market Garden not only accessible but also very interesting as there are many different angles to look at. When researching Market Garden I found Robert Kershaw’s “It Never Snows in September” very interesting as it covered the German perspective of the battle, which as I do not speak or read German proved very useful.

The National Archives also has a vast amount of unit War Diaries that can be easily accessed and can contain some often overlooked “quirks” of the operation. One such “quirk” involved the Dutch village of Oss and the supply dump located there (this is going to be the subject of a blog post in April).  

Finally Market Garden involved airpower (or lack of at crucial moments), plenty of tanks and artillery and not to forget the infantry (including British, American and Polish airborne forces as well as German paratroops opposing them). This level of combined arms required a huge planning and logistical arrangement. This alone provides a lot of primary sources that are available to view at the National Archives and can really give an insight into how certain departments and arms of service assess priorities. 

Sabre Rattling

The Falkland Islands (or Las Malvinas as the Argentinians like to refer to then) are cause for further concern this year. Argentina wants to push the issue over sovereignty of the Islands as much as it can. The question is how far will they go this time?

I think it is a safe bet that there will not be a full scale conflict over the Falkland Islands and if there was it is unlikely to be a repeat of 1982. The justification for this view is simple; we live in a very different world today than 30 years ago. Both countries face different challenges in the next few years and in the case of Argentina have a more benign government.

However with this being said, Argentina (President Kirchner) seems unwilling to simply back down from the issue. It has been said that Kirchner has little to lose and a lot to gain by forcing the issue.

It is highly likely that we will see a continuation of the rhetoric and economic warfare on the part of Argentina and its South American allies against both the Falklands and Britain. This is certainly how it seems to be playing out so far, a lot of tough talk followed by calls for the boycott of British goods and the prevention of cruise ships that have visited the Falklands from docking in Argentinean ports.

Thankfully the UK government is not rising to the bait and instead maintaining the same stance that it has held for a long time; that should the population of the Falkland Islands wish to discuss sovereignty of the island then it will not be stopped. No amount of name calling or tantrums will change that and Argentina runs the risk of losing what international support it has.