Sabre Rattling

The Falkland Islands (or Las Malvinas as the Argentinians like to refer to then) are cause for further concern this year. Argentina wants to push the issue over sovereignty of the Islands as much as it can. The question is how far will they go this time?

I think it is a safe bet that there will not be a full scale conflict over the Falkland Islands and if there was it is unlikely to be a repeat of 1982. The justification for this view is simple; we live in a very different world today than 30 years ago. Both countries face different challenges in the next few years and in the case of Argentina have a more benign government.

However with this being said, Argentina (President Kirchner) seems unwilling to simply back down from the issue. It has been said that Kirchner has little to lose and a lot to gain by forcing the issue.

It is highly likely that we will see a continuation of the rhetoric and economic warfare on the part of Argentina and its South American allies against both the Falklands and Britain. This is certainly how it seems to be playing out so far, a lot of tough talk followed by calls for the boycott of British goods and the prevention of cruise ships that have visited the Falklands from docking in Argentinean ports.

Thankfully the UK government is not rising to the bait and instead maintaining the same stance that it has held for a long time; that should the population of the Falkland Islands wish to discuss sovereignty of the island then it will not be stopped. No amount of name calling or tantrums will change that and Argentina runs the risk of losing what international support it has.