One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

The coalition plans for withdrawal suffered another setback this weekend at the hands of a lone US Staff Sergeant. The news of the horrific killings have unsurprisingly generated plenty of coverage in the papers over the last two days. As many commentators have been quick to point out, this is yet another embarrassing moment for US commanders coming at a time when the outrage over the burning of copies of the Koran had started to dissipate. Many commentators (at least in the UK) have also been quick to point out that there has not been a wave of protests or attacks against coalition troops in response to the killings, so far. What then is likely to occur over the next few days and weeks.

It will be interesting to see if any protests do occur as a result of the horrific and cold blooded actions of the lone gunman. However with the initial 48 hours passing it might be a case that many Afghans have become resigned to living life in a hostile environment where outsiders are generally unwelcome and death and injury comes from either insurgent activity (IEDs or reprisal etc) or from coalition activity (“collateral” damage). There is also the tribal element at play, the deaths occurred in the South of the country which is Pashtun. Despite and almost because of the near endless conflict that Afghanistan has witnessed, there is little national identity. Instead Tribal identity can take precedence over national identity.  

The Taleban were quick to try and seize the narrative of the events and issue declarations condemning the coalition forces as “savages” out to spill the blood of innocent Afghans. The Taleban have vowed to avenge these killings through attack on coalition forces.

Interestingly, this will be business as usual for the Taleban; but by making the statement and seizing the narrative of the event they appear to be doing something for the good of the Afghan people.

The press will spin the story out as long as it sells and will seek to use the attack as justification that our forces should no longer be in Afghanistan. Importantly the coverage the attacks receive will throw into the spotlight the ongoing discussions around the withdrawal of UK and US forces from Afghanistan. As one commentator pointed out, this could be a moment where Afghan politicians try and hold foreign forces accountable for their actions. There are already calls for the perpetrator to face justice in Afghanistan (something that the US is unlikely to acquiesce to).

Ultimately I believe that not a lot (aside from the usual levels of violence) will occur as a direct result following this attack. There will undoubtedly be attacks which the Taleban will claim are in retaliation to this event; but in all likelihood would have occurred anyway just in retaliation to something else.

The biggest impact these attacks will have is on the families of the victims and on the withdrawal plans. The timings of the withdrawals may not change but there will certainly be further conditions placed on the coalition troops staying in Afghanistan.

Photo source: (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd) (Credit: AP) http://www.salon.com/2010/07/25/wikileaks_4/