Syria and The Continuing Conflict

There was a very interesting article published on the Guardian website a couple of days ago (the 18^th of November 2013). The article addressed the growing realisation that the war is shifting or has shifted from a revolution against the government of Assad and is now a full civil war.

The author spends time with three members of a rebel battalion and speaks at length about how there is no unity and how the Assad forces are hitting them from the front and the Jihadist forces are effectively hitting them from behind. It makes for sombre reading as the problems faced are many and paints a clear picture of the danger that faces Syria. Syria being consigned to an ongoing struggle between the myriad groups opposing Assad and the regime. One of the subjects of the article says that this might take 10 years to resolve and for a coherent unified Syria to emerge post Assad. However if Assad were to fall now then the country would become split in to mini states of warring tribes, Islamists and battalions. This would not be a bright future either for Syria or the region. For a glimpse into the confusing world of factional and ideological identities; the accidental wrong identification and beheading of a wounded rebel does not bode well (Article is here).

The article that is the subject of this post does make a very good point when the commander of a rebel battalion states that for the most part the rebels know only how to fight and seize areas from the pro government forces. The Jihadists on the other hand set up governance and a form of stability, this stability is what is helping the Jihadists and more extreme elements gain ground and importantly exercise control even after they have moved on.    

Without stability and a credible alternative to Assad it is an uphill struggle for the rebel forces.

The real question is can stability ever exist post Assad and will there be a credible alternative that is not one controlled by Jihadist factions?

The conflict has been dragging on and certainly shows no sign of slowing down despite the potential tipping point over chemical weapons in the summer. For the Syrian people the future is bleak and likely to involve instability for some time to come. So far casualties have exceeded 120,000 as this article points out. The article also confirms the position that the conflict shows no sign of slowing down.

The comments provided at the end of the Guardian article make for reading that is both alarming and comical. There are some posts of merit in the comments, however a fair number descend into conspiracy and unsupported accusations leveled at various nations.